g20

La crisi in Ucraina al centro del G20 in Indonesia. Zelensky annuncia un piano di pace ma avverte: “Non accettiamo compromessi”. Putin è assente e Mosca è sempre più isolata.

Nel primo faccia a faccia Joe Biden e Xi Jinping concordano sulla necessità di “gestire la competizione”. Domani a Bali si apre il G20.

After 2020 and the outbreak of the pandemic, 2021 seemed a promising year, thanks not only to economic recovery but also to a (partial) “revival” of multilateralism. This year Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sounded like a “wake-up call” triggering geopolitical and economic turmoil on the global scale and casting doubts on the prospects for multilateral cooperation.

This year’s 17th annual G20 Leader’s Summit will take place the theme of “Recover Together, Recover Stronger”. Specifically, leaders will touch on the key issues of global health architecture, digital transformation, and sustainable energy transition. The talks will take place in a world disrupted by COVID-19, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, food and fuel price spikes and gathering economic storm clouds.

G20 leaders are gathering in Bali in a context of growing international tensions: the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical rivalries, a looming economic crisis in both advanced and emerging countries, increasing risks of de-globalization, and little hope of success at COP27. All this may take its toll on multilateral efforts at the G20 Summit. Which prospects for this Summit in Bali? Is there any room for cooperation on key global challenges, from environment to digitalization, from health to SDGs?

After the start of the war in Ukraine, the challenge of improving our global health fell into oblivion. This represents not only a medical problem, but a serious ethical issue as well. According to the United Nations Secretary General António Gutierrez, health inequalities after the pandemic were “an obscenity”. The picture is getting worse every day due to an appalling loss of the world's ability to react to new health threats, and the deterioration of living conditions of the poorest populations with its clinical consequences.

On the way to the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali, the debate will revolve around economic recovery, food security, climate change, and the war in Ukraine. But the G20 should take particular care also for the problems in international trade. The global trading system suffers under a severe pressure as many countries increasingly seek to implement unilateral trade policy measures, and beggar-thy-neighbour industrial policies with the aim of addressing their economic problems.

Economies of scale and scope, global reaches, and freedom of information made the digital economy globally integrated. However, certain market failures, such as “winner takes all” effects, the bad attitudes of market tipping, or the implementation of a national champion’s logic together with the geopolitical turbulences of the past years have created a somewhat different digital landscape.

More than 180 countries around the world have committed to ambitious carbon emission reduction targets - many of them including carbon neutrality by mid-century - to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming relative to pre-industrial times to well below 2oC, and preferably 1.5oC.

The world is in the historic moment of multiple crises. As countries continue to handle the fallout of the pandemic, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has added more uncertainties, both economically and geopolitically. Meanwhile, in an effort to curb severe inflation, central banks worldwide have embarked on un precedented monetary tightening, hoping not to endanger growth.